The 2026 FIFA World Cup will mark a historic shift in tournament structure, expanding to 48 teams for the first time ever. With the group stage officially drawn and most participants already confirmed, sportsbooks have released early odds on which teams are most likely to advance to the knockout stage — and which sides are favored to finish top of their groups.
The group draw, held in Washington, D.C., placed 42 teams into their respective groups, with the final six spots to be decided through playoff matches in March. With matches set to take place across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, attention has now shifted from the draw itself to how betting markets are shaping expectations.
Below is a breakdown of knockout stage qualification odds and group winner odds, based on DraftKings Sportsbook pricing as of December 5.
Favorites to Advance to the Knockout Stage
Several traditional powerhouses enter the tournament with overwhelming odds to reach the Round of 32. Teams such as Spain, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, and England are all priced at -10000, reflecting both roster depth and recent international success.
Spain arrive as reigning European champions, while Argentina are chasing a rare back-to-back World Cup title. Brazil remain the most decorated nation in tournament history, and Germany — despite recent group-stage struggles — continue to command market respect.
Just behind that top tier, Portugal and France are also strongly favored. France have reached consecutive World Cup finals, while Portugal’s recent UEFA Nations League success keeps them firmly in the contender conversation.
United States Odds and Group Outlook
The United States Men’s National Team received one of the more favorable group-stage draws and are priced at -575 to advance. Their group includes Paraguay, Australia, and the eventual winner of Playoff C (Türkiye, Romania, Slovakia, or Kosovo).
From a betting perspective, the U.S. avoided several dangerous mid-tier opponents from other pots, such as Morocco, Croatia, Colombia, Japan, and Norway. Recent friendly results against Australia and Paraguay also reinforce market confidence.
That said, head coach Mauricio Pochettino has emphasized the need for balance — optimism without overlooking any opponent — particularly after recent international disappointments.
Odds to Advance to the Knockout Stage (Selected Teams)
(DraftKings Sportsbook — Dec. 5)
- Spain: -10000
- Argentina: -10000
- Brazil: -10000
- Germany: -10000
- England: -10000
- Portugal: -5000
- France: -2500
- Belgium: -2000
- Netherlands: -1400
- Morocco: -1000
- Colombia: -1000
- Switzerland: -900
- Ecuador: -900
- Uruguay: -800
- Mexico: -750
- United States: -575
- Norway: -575
(Mid-tier and longshot teams follow based on market confidence and group difficulty.)
Odds to Win Group — Market Breakdown
In addition to qualification odds, sportsbooks have also posted group winner prices, which offer higher risk but significantly larger returns.
Group A
- Mexico: +110
- South Korea: +350
- Denmark: +450
- South Africa: +1200
Group B
- Switzerland: +140
- Italy: +230
- Canada: +450
- Qatar: +2500
Group C
- Brazil: -475
- Morocco: +450
- Scotland: +900
Group D
- United States: +150
- Paraguay: +330
- Türkiye: +500
- Australia: +500
Group E
- Germany: -200
- Ecuador: +250
- Ivory Coast: +800
Group F
- Netherlands: -135
- Japan: +275
- Tunisia: +800
Group G
- Belgium: -255
- Egypt: +450
- Iran: +600
Group H
- Spain: -500
- Uruguay: +400
Group I
- France: -200
- Norway: +260
- Senegal: +550
Group J
- Argentina: -340
- Austria: +450
- Algeria: +650
Group K
- Portugal: -185
- Colombia: +225
Group L
- England: -340
- Croatia: +400
Betting Takeaways
With the expanded format allowing 32 teams to reach the knockout stage, heavy favorites offer limited value in straight qualification markets. Instead, group winner odds and selective mid-tier teams may present more attractive betting opportunities, depending on group balance and matchup paths.
As final playoff teams are confirmed and squad lists take shape, these markets are expected to adjust — making early positioning critical for bettors looking to capture closing-line value.
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FAQ
How many teams advance from the group stage at the 2026 World Cup?
At the 2026 FIFA World Cup, 32 teams will advance to the knockout stage. The top two teams from each group qualify automatically, along with a selected number of third-placed teams based on FIFA’s official criteria.
Which teams are favored to advance to the knockout stage in 2026?
According to early betting odds, traditional powerhouses such as Spain, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, England, France, and Portugal are strongly favored to reach the knockout stage of the 2026 World Cup.
Are group winner odds different from knockout qualification odds?
Yes. Group winner odds focus on which team will finish first in its group, while knockout qualification odds simply reflect whether a team advances to the Round of 32. Group winner bets typically offer higher payouts but carry more risk.
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